What comes next? It’s not
about pace, it’s about direction.
It is our belief that the set of investment opportunities and risks is changing. This development is not related to the pace of change, but instead concerns the direction of change. We view this to be a pretty big deal.
We don’t have a crystal ball, no one does. We can’t identify the winners and losers in advance. Nor can we determine future market turning points, market-timers always fail.
But we can say quite a bit about the drivers that will determine the future paths taken by investment markets and national economies over the next so many years. Why do we say over “so many years”? Do we mean over the short-run or over the long run? Actually, neither. Instead, it’s our understanding that this directional change (for investment opportunities/risks) will continue for whatever number of years (short or long) is required for the driving factors to become adequately reflected.
Conclusions and next steps
Anyone who attempts to peer into the future with the objective of divining the forces at play, must be willing to revise their conclusions as new information arrives – which it will.
Earlier, we listed nine drivers of future change. Are these the ones that will prove out? No. Some will, while others will be replaced as, not yet discernable, new developments arrive. But the critical takeaway here is that directional change is coming, and this implies the presence of a new set of investment opportunities (and risks).
The solution that is most appropriate to your unique needs and circumstances can only grow out of a meaningful discussion.